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Study predicts sharp decline in Australians’ diets by 2030
19 March 2025
Encouraging people to eat more fruits and vegetables while cutting down on unhealthy foods is a major goal for improving health worldwide. In Australia, our dietary guidelines recommend most Aussies to consume an average of 2 servings of fruit and 5 servings of vegetables each day. At the same time, it is recommended to reduce the intake of unhealthy (discretionary) foods.
Unfortunately, predictions from a recent CSIRO modelling study (1) indicate by 2030
- Fruit intake will decline by nearly 10% across the general population, with all age and gender groups expected to eat less fruit, except for young adults aged 18-30y.
- Vegetable intake is expected to remain stable, but a decline is predicted for most women and age groups, while young men and those aged 18-30y may see an increase.
- Young adults are expected to eat about 11% more fruit and 13% more vegetables, but this increase is overshadowed by an even larger predicted rise in the consumption of unhealthy foods and drinks, which may go up by nearly 21% in that age group.
- Alarmingly, all segments of the population are anticipated to consume more unhealthy foods, leading to an overall increase of about 18%. This is concerning, especially since Australians currently eat twice the recommended amount of unhealthy foods according to dietary guidelines.
Achieving the health targets for 2030 that are part of Australia’s National Preventive Health Strategy (2021-2030), will require significant effort to not only stop these increasing trends but also reverse them to encourage higher fruit and vegetable consumption and lower intake of unhealthy options within the next seven years. Most population groups are already struggling to meet the recommended servings of fruits and vegetables, making these goals quite challenging.
Other countries have set similar targets to boost fruit and vegetable consumption through various campaigns, but many previous efforts to increase these foods have only led to small, temporary changes. In contrast, there have been fewer initiatives aimed at reducing unhealthy food intake.
Some successful strategies include controlling portion sizes and improving meal quality by replacing unhealthy foods with healthier options. Personalised nutrition advice has proven more effective than general recommendations for cutting back on unhealthy foods.
The authors state that measures like taxes on sugar sweetened drinks have been employed in some countries to encourage healthier eating habits. However, these have not been applied in Australia, and effective interventions targeting unhealthy foods have not yet been tested or scaled up successfully.
The authors suggest information from this study could help create targeted messages or programs to support specific groups of people who need help changing their eating habits for the better.
Reference
- Ryan M. Baird DL. Hendrie GA. Fruit, vegetables and discretionary food intake in Australian adults: Past trends and predicted progress towards population preventive health targets for 2030. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health. 12 March 2025 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anzjph.2025.100223
